Agricultural commodity markets and the Turn of the month effect

The Turn of the month (ToM) effect is a calendar anomaly when the majority of returns of an asset are con-centrated into several days around the end of the old month and the start of the new one. Until now, the investigation of the ToM effect has mainly been focused on the stock markets. However, this paper investigates the presence of the ToM effect in eight key agricultural commodity markets (cocoa, coffee, corn, cotton, rice, soybean, sugar, wheat), using three different alternatives of the ToM window, during the 2001–2021 time period. The results show a statistically significant ToM effect in the rice, coffee, and sugar markets. Further results show that the ToM pattern changed during the COVID-19 pandemic, and that, in the case of commodities with a statistically significant ToM effect, the ToM effect can be efficiently used to beat the buy & hold investment strategy convincingly. © The authors.

Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19: A Cross-Sectional Industry Analysis in Frontier Market

The effect of COVID-19 on the efficiency of frontier stock markets at the industrial level has received little attention. This study aimed to analyze the Dhaka stock exchange's immediate market response to the initial COVID-19 announcement at the industry level. An event study approach was used to cross-sectional daily returns of 311 enterprises grouped into seventeen industry groups to determine anomalous returns for a total of 21 trading days divided into seven separate event periods. According to the findings, the average abnormal return and cumulative average abnormal return for the total market return for the event and the subsequent days were both negative and statistically significant. A cross- sectional industrial analysis found that, except for the paper and printing industries, all other sectors produced a considerably abnormal and uniform negative abnormal return. The most substantial negative cumulative average abnormal returns were seen in event windows (0, 0), (0, +1) and (0, +5), which might be attributed to post-announcement drift and inefficient market activity. Furthermore, when comparing the results of the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing sectors, the Manufacturing sector had more gloomy outcomes. The COVID-19 epidemic was proven to have negative effects on several industry groups, including those in the pharmaceutical, information technology and telecommunications sectors, which were expected to benefit from the outbreak. This is one of the few empirical studies that investigate the impact of the epidemic on the cross-sectional industry stock return in frontier markets. The results of this research will aid both international and domestic investors in their pursuit of the best possible portfolio composition. © 2023 Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.

The effect of the COVID-19 announcement on stock returns: evidence from Egypt

Purpose: This study aims at testing efficiency of the Egyptian stock market at semi-strong level through exploring the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Egyptian stock returns. Design/methodology/approach: The author applied the "Event Study” method that addresses the impact of a particular event or group of events on stock returns, from 12 September 2019 to 5 April 2020, choosing Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX) 100 companies which constitute constitutes the highest-level 100 companies in terms of liquidity and activity. Findings: The study found inefficiency of the Egyptian stock market at the semistrong level, as the declaration of the COVID-19 has a negative insignificant effect on stock returns, whether on the day of the declaration, before or after it, The underlying reasons for these results can be referred to the idea that can be explained that investors are noise trading when making their investment decisions. Research limitations/implications: There are two limitations to the interface of this paper. The first one is the short-term impact of COVID-19, using 141 days, and then it is not clear in the research the long-term impact of events related to the epidemic. Secondly, because the author deals with a short period term, the author does not test the characteristics of the company or any other major events that may affect the stock returns of the companies under study. Originality/value: This adds to the finance literature on the impact of the COVID-19 announcement on stock returns in the context of African countries. The explanation of the interconnection of the COVID-19 announcement on stock returns in Egypt. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Sustainable institutional investment in the COVID-19 pandemic

This article examines institutions' investment strategies towards environmental and social (E&S) stocks in the first quarter of 2020, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Backed with both institutional- and firm-level analyses, we find that institutional investors shift towards stocks with higher E&S performance. The high E&S portfolios exhibit lower risk and return characteristics, outperforming (underperforming) their peers on market-down (-up) days. Further analysis shows this shift towards E&S is not a permanent transition, rather it reversed with the market rebound in the second quarter, thereby suggesting that the underlying driver of institutional E&S investment strategy in the pandemic is downside-risk protection. JEL Classification: G01, G12, G23, M14 © The Author(s) 2022.

Indonesian Capital Market Reaction to Jakarta's Large Scale Social Restrictions

This study aims to analyze the Indonesian capital market reaction to the Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) policy in Jakarta in 2020. The findings from this study can be used as a policy evaluation and as a reference to assess similar future policies to be implemented in Jakarta. Four event periods were used based on the number of times this policy was implemented in 2020. Using the event study approach and single index model method, this study used 568 companies listed on the IDX which are then divided into nine sectors. The results of this study showed that the Indo-nesian capital market reacted in different ways following the four periods of PSBB implementation in Jakarta. It was proven that there was no capital market reaction during the first period, a negative reaction for the second period, a positive reaction for the third period, and finally a negative reaction again for the fourth period.

The impacts of COVID-19 on China insurance industry-An empirical analysis based on event study.

Introduction: At the end of 2019, the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 pneumonia has developed from a mass health event to a global epidemic disaster. Its impact extends from human health to social, economic, political, international relations and global governance. In the process of fighting against the epidemic in China, almost all economic sectors were affected, and the insurance industry with epidemic sensitive characteristics was particularly affected. Methods: In order to identify the impacts of COVID-19 on China's insurance industry, this paper uses the event study method to calculate the changes in the cumulative abnormal return rate and the cumulative excess return of Chinese listed insurance companies before and after the outbreak of COVID-19. In the empirical analysis, five different typical events are examined, including the first outbreak of COVID-19 in China, the closure of Wuhan, the dredging of Wuhan, and the listing of vaccines in China. Results: The results show that the return rate of listed companies in the insurance industry showed an "inverted N" curve with the "decreasing, rising and then decreasing." The epidemic mainly has negative effects on the insurance industry in terms of premium income and indemnity expenditure. According to the supply shock theory of the new supply economics, the epidemic has a negative impact on the insurance industry in the short term and a positive impact in the long term. Discussion: In this context, insurance enterprises should attach importance to the change of business model, strengthen the development model of public-private joint venture insurance, promote product innovation and the application of insurance technology, and the experience and practice of the insurance industry in responding to the impact of the epidemic are of great significance to the transformation of China's insurance industry.

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19-RELATED EVENTS ON INDONESIAN COMPOSITE AND SECTORAL INDEX

This study uses an event study approach which is the development of the efficient market hypothesis theory. First, the random walk test was conducted on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) to test the efficiency in the weak form. Furthermore, event study analysis was carried out on JCI and nine sectoral indices to determine the impact of COVID-19 related events on price movements. The study found that JCI prices follow a random walk pattern so that the stock market in Indonesia is efficient, at least in a weak form. In the event study testing, only events related to the first confirmed case of COVID-19 and the implementation of large-scale social restriction in Indonesia affected the composite index. From a sectoral point of view, only the event of Jakarta’s call center had no impact on price changes in the sectoral index. Thus, each index had a different effect throughout the event. The reaction seen from the movement of prices for the composite and sectoral index to the public information explains that the condition of the Indonesian capital market is efficient, at least in semi-strong form. © 2022 by Emerald Publishing Limited.

The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on Borsa Istanbul: an event study method

Purpose>This study aims to research how the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) impacts the selected sector price indices in Borsa Istanbul (BIST), Turkey.Design/methodology/approach>The authors use the event study method because it is a useful method as stock prices and market instantly reflect the effect of such an unusual event. Data are retrieved from the https://www.investing.com/.Findings>The authors find that selected sectors are impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak. The banking and transportation sectors, on the announcement of first death, were impacted negatively, while the telecommunication and food –beverage sectors were impacted positively. The transportation and banking sectors experience an obvious downturn after the spread of COVID-19, while the food–beverage and telecommunication sectors experience an obvious upturn after the spread of COVID-19. Besides, the most adversely impacted sector is banking.Originality/value>This study bridges the research gap and adds significant insights to the existing literature. The main contribution of this study to the existing literature is the unexpected outbreak impacts on financial markets, especially on BIST. It is also expected that this study will make a significant contribution to analysts, researchers and policymakers.

Cyclical and Non-Cyclical Industry Stock Price Reaction towards Movement Control Order (MCO), Economic Stimulus Package and Vaccine Agreement Announcements: The Case of Covid-19

This study carries out empirical analyses using a market-model event study from 26 March 2020 to 20 November 2020. There are three major events highlighted in this article that explain the cyclical and noncyclical stock performance during the COVID-19 outbreak: (a) the implementation of the nationwide Movement control order series (MCOs);(b) the announcement of the economic stimulus package;and (c) the signing of the vaccine agreements. Empirical results are summarized into three main insights: (a) the 10-day event window (CAR -9,0), which entailed the first MCO, was marked by the closure of both public and private non-essential entities, further suspension of events and recreational activities, which negatively affected nationwide economics activities;(b) the 3-day event window (CAR -1,1), which entailed the announcement of the economic stimulus package, resulted in most industries reacting with positive returns except for the oil equipment and services industry;and (c) event window day-293 (CAR +131, +161), which entailed the announcement of the distribution and implementation of COVID-19 vaccines, whereby industries related to the healthcare segments such as equipment and services (+0.0694) and pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (+0.0671) showed positively significant returns at least at the 10% level. Finally, future research could enlighten ownership patterns in Malaysia due to Malaysian companies exhibiting a concentrated ownership structure.

Effect of the Universal Health Coverage Healthcare System on Stock Returns During COVID-19: Evidence From Global Stock Indices.

The increased uncertainty caused by a sudden epidemic disease has had an impact on the global financial market. We aimed to assess the primary healthcare system of universal health coverage (UHC) during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and its relationship with the financial market. To this end, we employed the abnormal returns of 68 countries from January 2, 2019, to December 31, 2020, to test the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on abnormal returns in the stock market and determine how a country's UHC changes the impact of a sudden pandemic on abnormal returns. Our findings show that the sudden onset of an epidemic disease results in unevenly distributed medical system resources, consequently diminishing the impact of UHC on abnormal returns.

Insider Trading at Zagreb Stock Exchange

This paper is the first paper that systematically observes and describes all publicly available data on insider trading on the Zagreb Stock Exchange during the period of June 2010 - June 2021. To accomplish this objective both parametric and non-parametric event-study tests are conducted using the data collected from 827 notifications published on the Zagreb Stock Exchange website. After filtering the notifications for overlapping events, there were 48 insiders’ purchase events and 50 insiders’ sales events. The results indicate that insiders can earn abnormal returns on share purchases based on their insider knowledge and that the information on insider purchases can bring additional information to outside investors. However, in the case of notifications of share sales by insiders, Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns (CAARs) after the event are not statistically significant and are just slightly positive, thus bringing no abnormal returns for insiders and not conveying information to the public. This suggests that the market may perceive sales having a lower informational content, as motivation for sales may be other needs, such as liquidity.

The Impact of Stock Split Announcements on Stock Prices: Evidence from Colombo Stock Exchange

The research looks into the impact of stock split announcements on stock prices and market efficiency in the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE). This research uses a sample of 26 stock split announcements that occurred between 2020 and June 2021. According to the Global Industry Classification Standards, the stock split announcements covered in the study pertain to 26 businesses and 9 industries (GICS). To obtain the results, the usual event research methodology is used. The findings demonstrate significant average abnormal returns of 15.01 percent on the day the stock split news is made public and abnormal returns of 4.11 percent and -4.05 percent one day before and after the stock split announcement date, respectively. The study's findings revealed significant positive abnormal returns one day before the disclosure date, indicating information leakage, and significant negative abnormal returns the next day after the announcement date, indicating CSE informational efficiency. Because stock prices adapt so quickly to public information, these findings support the semi-strong form efficient market hypothesis, which states that investors cannot gain an abnormal return by trading in stocks on the day of the stock split announcement.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Hotel Stock Prices in Europe: An Event Study Approach

The outbreak of the novel corona virus has severely impacted the world economy. Along with the challenges imposed on the healthcare sector, the pandemic also affected the performance of all sorts of industries. With many businesses already shut and many more struggling to survive, the overall impact of the pandemic on different sectors of the economy remains a subject of further research. In this paper, the impact of corona virus outbreak on the performance of hotel stock prices in Europe is analysed through an Event Study Methodology. Four major events in the corona virus timeline of Europe between January and May 2020 were considered for the study. For the 15 publicly listed hotels, significantly high negative average abnormal return and the cumulative abnormal return was observed during event 2 and event 3 that occurred on March 11 and March 17 respectively. These two events marked the peak of the outbreak in Europe when the travel and movement restrictions were strictly imposed. The average and cumulative abnormal returns showed signs of positive change during event 4 (May 11) which can be attributed to easing of lockdown in many European countries. Thus, for businesses including hotels to start recovering from their current losses it is required that the restrictions are gradually uplifted, and people start moving towards normalcy in their lifestyle as well as the governments to provide support in the form of stimulus packages. © 2022 Publishing India Group. All rights reserved.

Many hands make light work: Evidence from China's anti-epidemic bonds.

Based on China's anti-epidemic bond data, this paper investigates stock market reactions to the anti-epidemic bond issuance announcements during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that anti-epidemic bond issuance significantly increases the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) compared with conventional bond issuance.

The dual shocks of the COVID-19 and the oil price collapse: A spark or a setback for the circular economy?

Is the COVID-19-induced unprecedented plunge in oil demand good news for the nascent circular economy in a material made from oil (i.e., the recycled plastics)? Since the plunge of oil prices, recycled plastics have become more expensive than virgin plastics, potentially encouraging manufacturers to shift away from the former to the latter. Our study primarily attempts to address whether recycled plastics will survive the tanked oil prices and COVID-19. To this end, we assess how the dual shocks of COVID-19 and the associated oil price collapse affect: (i) the dynamic co-movements between the international crude oil prices and the plastic and recycled plastic prices, and (ii) the responses of virgin plastics and recycled plastics in terms of diversification opportunities. Using different empirical methodologies (i.e., the event study methodology to assess changes in prices beyond expectations, the optimal hedge ratio, the portfolio weight, and copula-based approaches), the findings robustly suggest that with the rising uncertainty over COVID-19, the oil market and the performance of virgin plastic manufacturers are still significantly and positively connected, although a negative dependence with the recycled plastics is shown. With the onslaught of the coronavirus pandemic, the inclusion of virgin plastics in a portfolio composed of oil only improves the reward-to-risk ratios. These results have relevant implications for risk management and policy design.

COVID-19 Pandemic and the Reaction of Asian Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia

The study examines the influence of COVID-19 on the stock market returns of Saudi Arabia. The data was analyzed through event study methodology using daily price data of Tadawul All Share Index (TASI). The study examines the behavior pattern of the Saudi Arabian stock market in different phases during the event period by selecting six-event windows with a range of 10 days. The results report a negative Abnormal Return (AR) of -0.003 on the event date, while the abnormal returns reversed the next day to 0.005 positively. The result of Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) is negative and significant at the 1 percent level in all the six-event windows starting from the event date to day 59 after the event for the TASI index. Even though the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic decreased after 30 days of the event date, it increased during the last ten days of the event window. The stock market volatility of Saudi Arabia increased during the post-event period compared to the pre-event period with a negative mean return of -0.326 and a greater standard deviation. In a conclusion, the study found a significant influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the stock market returns of TASI.

HOW HAS THE INDONESIAN STOCK MARKET PERFORMED DURING COVID-19 OUTBREAKS

This paper analyzes the stock market reaction towards the Covid-19 pandemic by using a sample of Indonesian listed firms. In general, we document a significant negative cumulative abnormal returns when the Indonesian President announces the first case of Covid-19 in Indonesia. This effect remains ten days (weaker) after the announcement. However, we only find a short-term effect on the finance industry. While the explanation is still unclear, the investors may observe that the economic impact on the finance industry may arise in the long-run.

The Russia-Saudi Arabia oil price war during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic damaged crude oil markets and amplified the consequences of uncertainty stemming from the Russia-Saudi Arabia oil price war in March-April of 2020. We investigate the impacts of the oil price war on global crude oil markets. By doing so, we use the daily futures and spot prices in three major crude oil markets - West Texas Intermediate, European Brent, and Oman - to perform a systematic analysis of the impacts of the oil price war on them. The event study method, a well-established analytical tool to measure the impacts of a given event on markets, is used in this study. The results indicate that information leakage plays an important role in the impacts of the price war. The outbreak of and truce following the price war have asymmetrical impacts on the markets; negative impacts generated by information leakage during the outbreak are generally more durable than the positive ones it generated during the truce. Furthermore, the magnitude of the impacts on futures markets is negatively correlated with the time-to-maturity of futures. Finally, negative crude oil prices affect West Texas Intermediate crude oil markets the most. Our findings generally show that market participants could perceive and assimilate market changes and adjust their expectations, which restrained the impacts that should have occurred within the oil price war.

Kindness is rewarded! The impact of corporate social responsibility on Chinese market reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic.

This study takes the COVID-19 outbreak as a quasi-natural experiment to investigate whether corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance can help firms mitigate drops in their share prices. The results show that CSR ratings are positively associated with cumulative abnormal return (CAR) during the COVID-19 outbreaks periods. Further, the positive role of CSR is more significant for non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOE) and those located in regions with lower levels of marketization.

COVID-19 pandemic and stock market response: A culture effect.

National culture has been shown to impact the way investors, firm managers, and other financial market participants respond to crisis. To date, however, none has looked at the impact of culture on market responses to disasters. This paper is the first to address the effect of national culture on stock market responses to a global health disaster. We find larger declines and greater volatilities for stock markets in countries with lower individualism and higher uncertainty avoidance during the first three weeks after a country's first COVID-19 case announcement. Our results are robust after controlling for investor fear, cumulative infected cases, the stringency of government response policies, the level of democracy, political corruption, and the 2003 SARS experience, among others.